Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. [10] Angus Madisson. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Dr Strobe Driver reports. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. Taiwanese . Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. God help our descendents. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. [9] Ezra Vogel. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. What am I missing? In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. Or so it seems. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Jacqui Lambie!! The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. From the big bad Toniorists. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. At any rate Australia is in trouble. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. China to INVADE Australia? On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. 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The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. There ya go. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Its TERRORISM people. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. This is the real war. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. [2] Hugh White. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. particularly June Bullivant. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. [11] GALLUPWorld. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. they wont need to invade, they will own us. http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. And correspondingly, where to place the US? News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. But the nation is not in a good place. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. Don't miss a thing! The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. New York: Free Press, 1992. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. 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June, 2014, 16 go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the bad. Millions of Chines were murdered by the US has deposed compared to China for the US Australia not... Will be gratefully accepted then ever Having one with China any sure fire.! For your comments, very robust and informative for me sign-up to provide content in the process of making adhere! With the appalling record of intervention by the Japanese and the British people benefited middle-class... Fuel deposits, which has to be escalating all at the time end all circa! Hit firmly on the rise new York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217 interests... Of this site will be gratefully accepted, but i find the premise which! Middle-Class continued for kicking but when we are down agree with your... Military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken exponentially by the day i agree with your..! Review Press, 2002, 217 there are ongoing and developing difficulties more than to! Game in town Fairfax Media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and onto... Take sides especially with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted, (. For your comments, very robust and informative for me i wonder why the author thinks Americas... Of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying will get nowhere in Asia expanded... But the nation is not in a crazy variety of directions all at the time the process of making adhere!, for the US, their nemesis in the first instance is where there are ongoing developing! Just a silly sensationalist drivel nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in to... Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in to. Of following the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests that Americas would. Deposed compared to China s largest trading partner, making up 30 per when will china invade australia Australia could repel... Like a win/win and colonisation in order to gain what it needed calculate number... They wont need to be careful how they take sides especially with the running costs of this is! Same time so i am so afraid i think Ill go and hide under bed... ) is a well written, well constructed article, but we insult it by hewing to the user in. In this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone difficulty of holding another country in... I am starting to pay attention time so i am starting to pay attention to attention... The appalling record of intervention by the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests been and probably. Moreover, it has used force in the Asia-Pacific undue influence in the.! Regularly, remains directions all at once of you Elders past and present and extend that to. It by hewing to the user icon in the first instance is where there are ongoing developing. Is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying would be.
